Long-term impacts of an unconditional cash transfer program on schooling: experimental evidence from Malawi

Abstract

Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs) are effective policy instruments to increase schooling outcomes, but are UCTs effective in the long term? This paper provides the first evidence on the long-term schooling impacts of a national cash transfer program in Africa. Specifically, we follow a panel of school-aged children in the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Program (SCTP) in three waves (2013-baseline, 2015-endline, and 2021-follow-up) and compare their schooling outcomes between children randomized to receive transfers early and those randomized to receive the transfers later. In the short-term, we find that school enrollment and highest-grade completion are significantly higher for children in the early treatment group. In the long-term, five years after the late treatment group started receiving transfers, the impacts on highest grade completion persist only for older out-of-school girls. Mobility patterns suggest that the transfers may have delayed marriage of older girls in the early treatment group. For this subgroup, long-term school enrollment is significantly higher for children living closer to a secondary school than those living farther away indicating complementarity between income and school travel costs.